President Joe Biden touted a ceasefire agreement Wednesday between Israel and Hamas, a goal his administration has been working toward for more than a year now with less than a week before he leaves the Oval Office.
This deal, which will not commence until Sunday and could still fall apart before then, is the culmination of negotiations facilitated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. It’s unclear exactly why the deal came together now, though President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Hamas that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by his inauguration, which is set for next Monday.
Who gets credit? Biden or Trump?
“I’d also note, this deal was developed and negotiated under my administration but its terms will be implemented, for the most part, by the next administration,” Biden said during brief remarks laying out the deal. “For these past few days, we’ve been speaking as one team.”
Biden acknowledged in his remarks that the deal Israel and Hamas have agreed to is similar to the proposal he publicly described last May, but he didn’t specify why both sides have made the necessary concessions to get the deal done now.
When asked by a reporter whether he or Trump deserved credit following his remarks, Biden said, “Is that a joke?” before walking away.
Despite the comment, Trump’s incoming special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, became involved in the negotiations in recent weeks following the election. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Witkoff’s addition to the U.S. side has been important for getting the deal done because it ensured the incoming administration would support the agreement.
“I think Steve Witkoff has been a terrific partner in this, and also President-elect Trump in making clear that he wants to see this deal go forward, and go forward before Jan. 20. And of course, everyone wants to know — and it’s very useful as well to have Steve a part of this — they want to make sure that the deal that the President’s put on the table and that we’ve negotiated, the Trump administration will continue to back,” Blinken said.
The Trump team’s participation in the negotiations indicated to relevant parties that it would support the deal once the inauguration occurs next week.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller acknowledged Wednesday that the Trump team “has been absolutely critical in getting this deal over the line” in light of the impending conclusion of the Biden administration.
He also argued that Hamas finally agreed to a ceasefire after it realized there would be no larger regional war and none of Iran or its proxies would be coming to its defense.
What is the future of Hamas?
Israel has decimated Hamas’s senior leadership and its ranks, but the U.S.-designated terrorist organization has continued its attempts to reconstitute, particularly in northern Gaza. Israeli forces have killed Hamas’s top officials, including Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh.
Biden administration officials have said Hamas does not pose the same threat to Israel’s national security that it did prior to the war, but the group’s efforts and attacks on Israeli forces have continued.
Biden, in his public remarks Wednesday, raised eyebrows by declaring that with the ceasefire deal, Palestinians in Gaza could now look to a future free from Hamas, but the initial contours of the ceasefire deal do not actually address the status of Hamas.
Israel has maintained that it will not allow Hamas to retake governing control of Gaza, and the U.S. agrees with its position, but it’s unclear who will lead the next government of the enclave.
Blinken also said the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, “should invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration with responsibility for key civil sectors in Gaza like banking, water, energy, health, civil coordination with Israel.”
“The international community would provide funding, technical support, and oversight,” he added. “The interim administration would include Palestinians from Gaza and representatives from the PA — selected following meaningful consultation with communities in Gaza — and would hand over complete responsibility to a fully reformed PA administration as soon as it’s feasible.”
Hamas’s true strength is unknown, but in a Tuesday speech at the Atlantic Council, Blinken said Hamas has largely recuperated its losses from Israeli strikes with new recruits after Oct. 7.
Blinken’s assessment is a stark recognition of the situation facing both Israel and Gaza and whether this effort will finally secure a lasting peace between them.
Israel has sought to destroy Hamas, a terrorist organization that intentionally embeds itself within and underneath civilian infrastructure in order to shield itself, and in doing so, has risked the lives of many civilians, destroyed much of the enclave, and displaced nearly the entire population. The death toll is north of 45,000 people, which includes civilians and combatants, raising the question of whether an unintended consequence of the war was creating a new generation of Palestinians who have been radicalized against Israel due to the military’s operations.
What is the timeline of the ceasefire and the different stages?
The ceasefire will be implemented in three stages, the first of which will take six weeks and begin this weekend.
Hamas will release 33 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians being held in Israeli prisons, including those given life sentences and 1,000 taken prisoner after Oct. 7. No prisoners who took part in the Oct. 7 attacks will be part of the exchange. Many of the prisoners that could be released have ties with Hamas.
Israeli troops will withdraw from most of Gaza, with soldiers only allowed within a 700-meter-deep buffer zone within the strip, except for corridors along the Egyptian border and through the center of Gaza.
Israel will allow displaced Palestinians, nearly the entire population, to return to what is left of their homes. A flood of humanitarian aid will be let in, and those needing medical treatment will be allowed out of the Gaza Strip.
If the conditions of Phase 1 are met, Phase 2 will see all remaining living hostages released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. The current document holds that Israel will then initiate a “complete withdrawal,” though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office disputed this.
Netanyahu has been adamant over the course of the war that Israel would not agree to a permanent deal that could allow Hamas to reconstitute. It’s unclear whether the two sides will be able to come together to get to the second phase or whether Israel will resume its operations in Gaza.
Though the details of Phase 3 are unclear, it would involve the transfer of the remains of the remaining hostages in exchange for a 3- to 5-year internationally-assisted reconstruction plan for Gaza.
According to a draft viewed by the Wall Street Journal, Hamas accepted verbal guarantees from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey that Israel would continue negotiations for a permanent ceasefire.
After 16 days, talks will focus on whether to extend the ceasefire into a permanent end to hostilities.
How many hostages are believed to be alive?
According to a Washington Post tracker, Israel believes around 60 hostages are still alive. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that privately, Israeli and U.S. officials believe the true number is much higher.
Of the seven remaining American hostages, only three are believed to be alive, with the remaining four dead, according to Miller.
Of the 251 hostages taken on Oct. 7, 117 have been freed or rescued, and 74 have been confirmed killed. The rest, dead or alive, are still in captivity, with 33 of them set to be released over the next six weeks. Seven Americans are among the roughly 100 hostages who are still being held.
At least two Americans, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen, are expected to be released during the first phase of the ceasefire, according to a senior administration official.